May 6, 2026
MEMORANDUM
TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Meg Scribner, Georgia for Jason Campaign Manager
DATE: May 6, 2026
RE: Dominating the Final Two Weeks
Summary
The Democratic primary for governor remains wide open and clearly headed to a runoff. As Georgians have begun casting their votes, Jason is the only candidate in the race with upward momentum, a robust paid media operation, and the grassroots organization needed to secure the runoff spot against Keisha Lance Bottoms.
Polling shows Jason Esteves in second place and headed for the runoff
New polling from the AJC shows Jason as the only candidate with upward mobility, having tripled his polling numbers since the last AJC poll while every other candidate has remained stagnant. Despite high name ID, Bottoms has not managed to break 50%; she is leading with 39% and Jason is in a statistical tie for second place. March polling published in the National Journal also showed Jason in second place to Bottoms and headed to a runoff.
With just two weeks left until the primary, undecided voters make up the second-largest portion of the electorate in each poll. This late-breaking race will come down to who can dominate the airwaves in the final stretch and who has the grassroots momentum across Georgia. While other candidates have already hit their ceiling, Jason has the ability to attract the voters needed in the home stretch.
Undecided voters will overwhelmingly hear from Jason in the final weeks
Jason is dominating the airwaves as the only Democratic candidate for governor to place a significant TV buy to date. In March, Jason was the first Democrat to go up on the airwaves with $1 million spent on his behalf on TV and digital. He announced a similar seven-figure ad buy in April across Atlanta broadcast and statewide streaming.
As our opponents lay down small TV reservations on a rolling basis, our campaign is on track to out-spend the competition exponentially in the final two weeks on broadcast and streaming. With 50% of Democratic primary voters historically voting on Election Day and most early voters waiting until the final days, undecided voters will be hearing Jason’s message when it matters most.
Gaining statewide momentum
Jason has momentum because he is the right candidate for this moment: someone who can build on the gains made by leaders like Stacey Abrams, Raphael Warnock, and Jon Ossoff — all of whom galvanized the Democratic base while expanding their statewide coalition.
Attracting Crowds
While Keisha Lance Bottoms left the state for her book tour, Jason was on the ground connecting with voters. At his Election Year Kickoff and Early Vote Kickoff, hundreds of voters rallied to make a plan to vote and volunteer for the campaign.
Campaigning Statewide
Over the past two months on the Health, Wealth, and Opportunity tour, our campaign has gained a reputation for an aggressive statewide earned media and on-the-ground political operation. Jason’s local media blitz, new media interviews, and increasing national attention shows that he is meeting voters where they are and communicating on key Georgia issues.
Continuing to Grow the Coalition
In the past month alone, Jason has earned critical endorsements from Georgia Conservation Voters, UFCW Local 1996, Workers United Southern Region, Unite Here Local 23, Georgia Equality, Cobb County Sheriff Craig Owens, and House Democratic Whip Sam Park. Key stakeholders are coalescing behind him as the strongest Democrat to win.
Jason is gaining momentum as his opponents flounder
Jason is hitting his stride just as his opponents are losing ground. Keisha Lance Bottoms’ vulnerabilities have already come on full display as she has emerged as the Republicans’ favorite foil — and the candidate they’d most like to run against. Already, Rick Jackson, Burt Jones, and Brad Raffensperger have released ads taking aim at her tenure as mayor. A new microsite has also emerged highlighting her mayoral record, from rising crime to the Buckhead cityhood movement to a myriad of ethical scandals.
Michael Thurmond’s low-dollar operation has translated into an under-the-radar campaign, with no movement in polling since his launch. His inability to translate name ID into votes shows that Democrats in Georgia are bucking the politics of the past in favor of a new generation of leadership.
And Geoff Duncan’s deep credibility issues are on full display as his polling numbers continue to sink and voters are reminded about his track record as Republican lieutenant governor.
Barnstorming in final weeks
Heading into the primary, Jason will keep outworking the opposition and climbing in the polls as voters learn more about him. The campaign will host block parties in Atlanta and Jason’s hometown of Columbus, joint events with our 70+ endorsers, canvasses across metro Atlanta, and an aggressive digital strategy. We are confident that Georgia Democrats will continue to coalesce around Jason as the best candidate to win both the primary and general elections.
